client accountSources & methodology
The four claim states
Every channel statement carries exactly one state. The state decides how the statement may be read — and what it must never be read as.A find with a retrievable URL — a listing, ad or post was captured and matched. Publishable evidence.
Strong but inconclusive evidence — the statement is disclosed as inferred; the automated gate holds the analysis when no channel is proven.
Checked, and nothing was found. Never evidence of absence — a machine can prove a product is listed somewhere, not that it is listed nowhere.
The source could not be checked or the crawl module did not run. No statement is made.
Confidence is fixed by state: Proven 0.9 · Likely 0.55 · Not found 0.4 · Not verifiable 0.
Every figure in the basis table carries one Evidence word and one Produced tag. Evidence says where the value came from; Produced says who or what made it.
Evidence — where the value came fromread directly from a public source (a listing, a storefront, an ad, a review)
derived from observed inputs by a stated rule (an allocation, a benchmark, a modelled pool)
a placeholder or an editorial / market-report figure no reading of the brand confirms
we searched and found nothing — never 'absent'
not searched, not derivable, or no source exists
produced by the crawl or the composer without a person
produced automatically at low confidence — a heuristic, an allocation, an unreviewed extraction
reviewed or written by an analyst
nothing has been produced yet — the module did not run or no source exists
static example data of the Audit / Live preview stages — a worked example under the sample band, never a brand's own figure
A machine can prove a product is listed somewhere, never that it is listed nowhere. We report proven finds and never turn "not found" into "not present".
A machine can count what is on a page, and count comments and reviews, but never the quality, awareness or reputation of a brand in a specific market. Every such KPI carries a person behind it.
How the brand snapshot is built
The product snapshot is assembled from crawl rows in three tables: marketplace listings (staging.marketplace_products), shopping search results (staging.serp_shopping) and independent shop products (staging.independent_shop_products).
Only rows whose title starts with the brand name are accepted — the strict brand-prefix rule, our homonym guard against near-name products of other brands. Duplicates are collapsed by lowercased title, keeping the row with the most reviews; the top 8 by review count become the product cards.
The average price is the mean over ALL deduped candidate products — not only the 8 shown — converted to USD via a fixed FX table. Quality index = rating ÷ 5 × 100.
Positioning is a price band — average ≥ $80 Premium, ≥ $35 Mid-market, otherwise Value — unless overridden in human review. The price–quality matrix axes auto-zoom to the data range, so quadrants read relative to the shown range.
Product sources- Signature Serum — example.com
- Barrier Cream — example.com
- Everyday Cleanser — example.com
- Travel Minis Kit — example.com
Market figures · Germany
Every market number carries its sources, retrieval dates, extraction method and confidence.Market figures are researched through structured web searches (the exact queries are listed below) plus machine extraction under a hard rule: every number must cite one of the supplied source URLs, or it is nulled — the anti-hallucination gate. A human review status is recorded on every market object, and everything market-level is directional by definition.
| Metric | Value | Confidence | Method | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market size | €6.8B (2026) | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| CAGR | 7.4% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Online share | 41% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Amazon share of online | 33% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Category growth benchmark | 34% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
Search queries used
The exact queries this market research run issued — the audit trail of the market object.
- beauty market size Germany 2026 (demo)
Channel presence · Germany
One entry per channel claim: state, statement, confidence, the machine-readable derivation trace, and every evidence source with its retrieval date.48 listings found on amazon.de matching the brand.
Search results reference douglas.de for the brand; no product page was captured.
5 TikTok Shop listings/storefront pages found matching the brand.
Checked the ads transparency surface — no active ads found (not proof of absence).
6 active creatives found in the Meta Ad Library.
Own shop found with 140 products captured.
Social module did not run for this market — presence not checkable.
Revenue run-rate derivation · Germany
How today, benchmark and potential are computed for this market.Latest ground-truth daily sales × 365 — a labelled estimate, not measured sales. (Confidence 0.4)
Today ÷ covered-mix share — the share of the typical online channel mix the brand provably covers; weights derive from online share × Amazon share of online.
Benchmark × (1 + CAGR) — the same coverage at benchmark performance, grown at the market's CAGR.
Demo figures. Today is the documented spider estimate (avg price × capped product count × trend index, confidence 0.4). Benchmark and potential are directional derivations from the demo market object. FX: none applied.
Market figures · United Kingdom
Every market number carries its sources, retrieval dates, extraction method and confidence.Market figures are researched through structured web searches (the exact queries are listed below) plus machine extraction under a hard rule: every number must cite one of the supplied source URLs, or it is nulled — the anti-hallucination gate. A human review status is recorded on every market object, and everything market-level is directional by definition.
| Metric | Value | Confidence | Method | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market size | €7.9B (2026) | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| CAGR | 6.9% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Online share | 52% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Amazon share of online | 41% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Category growth benchmark | 31% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
Search queries used
The exact queries this market research run issued — the audit trail of the market object.
- beauty market size Germany 2026 (demo)
Channel presence · United Kingdom
One entry per channel claim: state, statement, confidence, the machine-readable derivation trace, and every evidence source with its retrieval date.48 listings found on amazon.co.uk matching the brand.
Search results reference douglas.de for the brand; no product page was captured.
5 TikTok Shop listings/storefront pages found matching the brand.
Checked the ads transparency surface — no active ads found (not proof of absence).
6 active creatives found in the Meta Ad Library.
Own shop found with 140 products captured.
Social module did not run for this market — presence not checkable.
Revenue run-rate derivation · United Kingdom
How today, benchmark and potential are computed for this market.Latest ground-truth daily sales × 365 — a labelled estimate, not measured sales. (Confidence 0.4)
Today ÷ covered-mix share — the share of the typical online channel mix the brand provably covers; weights derive from online share × Amazon share of online.
Benchmark × (1 + CAGR) — the same coverage at benchmark performance, grown at the market's CAGR.
Demo figures. Today is the documented spider estimate (avg price × capped product count × trend index, confidence 0.4). Benchmark and potential are directional derivations from the demo market object. FX: none applied.
Market figures · France
Every market number carries its sources, retrieval dates, extraction method and confidence.Market figures are researched through structured web searches (the exact queries are listed below) plus machine extraction under a hard rule: every number must cite one of the supplied source URLs, or it is nulled — the anti-hallucination gate. A human review status is recorded on every market object, and everything market-level is directional by definition.
| Metric | Value | Confidence | Method | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market size | €5.9B (2026) | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| CAGR | 6.8% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Online share | 46% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Amazon share of online | 30% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Category growth benchmark | 30% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
Search queries used
The exact queries this market research run issued — the audit trail of the market object.
- beauty market size Germany 2026 (demo)
Channel presence · France
One entry per channel claim: state, statement, confidence, the machine-readable derivation trace, and every evidence source with its retrieval date.48 listings found on amazon.fr matching the brand.
Search results reference douglas.de for the brand; no product page was captured.
5 TikTok Shop listings/storefront pages found matching the brand.
Checked the ads transparency surface — no active ads found (not proof of absence).
6 active creatives found in the Meta Ad Library.
Own shop found with 140 products captured.
Social module did not run for this market — presence not checkable.
Revenue run-rate derivation · France
How today, benchmark and potential are computed for this market.Latest ground-truth daily sales × 365 — a labelled estimate, not measured sales. (Confidence 0.4)
Today ÷ covered-mix share — the share of the typical online channel mix the brand provably covers; weights derive from online share × Amazon share of online.
Benchmark × (1 + CAGR) — the same coverage at benchmark performance, grown at the market's CAGR.
Demo figures. Today is the documented spider estimate (avg price × capped product count × trend index, confidence 0.4). Benchmark and potential are directional derivations from the demo market object. FX: none applied.
Market figures · Netherlands
Every market number carries its sources, retrieval dates, extraction method and confidence.Market figures are researched through structured web searches (the exact queries are listed below) plus machine extraction under a hard rule: every number must cite one of the supplied source URLs, or it is nulled — the anti-hallucination gate. A human review status is recorded on every market object, and everything market-level is directional by definition.
| Metric | Value | Confidence | Method | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market size | €2.6B (2026) | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| CAGR | 6.6% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Online share | 48% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Amazon share of online | 22% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Category growth benchmark | 29% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
Search queries used
The exact queries this market research run issued — the audit trail of the market object.
- beauty market size Germany 2026 (demo)
Channel presence · Netherlands
One entry per channel claim: state, statement, confidence, the machine-readable derivation trace, and every evidence source with its retrieval date.48 listings found on amazon.nl matching the brand.
Search results reference douglas.de for the brand; no product page was captured.
5 TikTok Shop listings/storefront pages found matching the brand.
Checked the ads transparency surface — no active ads found (not proof of absence).
6 active creatives found in the Meta Ad Library.
Own shop found with 140 products captured.
Social module did not run for this market — presence not checkable.
Revenue run-rate derivation · Netherlands
How today, benchmark and potential are computed for this market.Latest ground-truth daily sales × 365 — a labelled estimate, not measured sales. (Confidence 0.4)
Today ÷ covered-mix share — the share of the typical online channel mix the brand provably covers; weights derive from online share × Amazon share of online.
Benchmark × (1 + CAGR) — the same coverage at benchmark performance, grown at the market's CAGR.
Demo figures. Today is the documented spider estimate (avg price × capped product count × trend index, confidence 0.4). Benchmark and potential are directional derivations from the demo market object. FX: none applied.
Market figures · Spain
Every market number carries its sources, retrieval dates, extraction method and confidence.Market figures are researched through structured web searches (the exact queries are listed below) plus machine extraction under a hard rule: every number must cite one of the supplied source URLs, or it is nulled — the anti-hallucination gate. A human review status is recorded on every market object, and everything market-level is directional by definition.
| Metric | Value | Confidence | Method | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market size | €3.6B (2026) | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| CAGR | 7% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Online share | 45% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Amazon share of online | 27% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Category growth benchmark | 32% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
Search queries used
The exact queries this market research run issued — the audit trail of the market object.
- beauty market size Germany 2026 (demo)
Channel presence · Spain
One entry per channel claim: state, statement, confidence, the machine-readable derivation trace, and every evidence source with its retrieval date.48 listings found on amazon.es matching the brand.
Search results reference douglas.de for the brand; no product page was captured.
5 TikTok Shop listings/storefront pages found matching the brand.
Checked the ads transparency surface — no active ads found (not proof of absence).
6 active creatives found in the Meta Ad Library.
Own shop found with 140 products captured.
Social module did not run for this market — presence not checkable.
Revenue run-rate derivation · Spain
How today, benchmark and potential are computed for this market.Latest ground-truth daily sales × 365 — a labelled estimate, not measured sales. (Confidence 0.4)
Today ÷ covered-mix share — the share of the typical online channel mix the brand provably covers; weights derive from online share × Amazon share of online.
Benchmark × (1 + CAGR) — the same coverage at benchmark performance, grown at the market's CAGR.
Demo figures. Today is the documented spider estimate (avg price × capped product count × trend index, confidence 0.4). Benchmark and potential are directional derivations from the demo market object. FX: none applied.
Market figures · Italy
Every market number carries its sources, retrieval dates, extraction method and confidence.Market figures are researched through structured web searches (the exact queries are listed below) plus machine extraction under a hard rule: every number must cite one of the supplied source URLs, or it is nulled — the anti-hallucination gate. A human review status is recorded on every market object, and everything market-level is directional by definition.
| Metric | Value | Confidence | Method | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market size | €4.4B (2026) | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| CAGR | 6.7% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Online share | 43% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Amazon share of online | 25% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Category growth benchmark | 30% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
Search queries used
The exact queries this market research run issued — the audit trail of the market object.
- beauty market size Germany 2026 (demo)
Channel presence · Italy
One entry per channel claim: state, statement, confidence, the machine-readable derivation trace, and every evidence source with its retrieval date.48 listings found on amazon.it matching the brand.
Search results reference douglas.de for the brand; no product page was captured.
5 TikTok Shop listings/storefront pages found matching the brand.
Checked the ads transparency surface — no active ads found (not proof of absence).
6 active creatives found in the Meta Ad Library.
Own shop found with 140 products captured.
Social module did not run for this market — presence not checkable.
Revenue run-rate derivation · Italy
How today, benchmark and potential are computed for this market.Latest ground-truth daily sales × 365 — a labelled estimate, not measured sales. (Confidence 0.4)
Today ÷ covered-mix share — the share of the typical online channel mix the brand provably covers; weights derive from online share × Amazon share of online.
Benchmark × (1 + CAGR) — the same coverage at benchmark performance, grown at the market's CAGR.
Demo figures. Today is the documented spider estimate (avg price × capped product count × trend index, confidence 0.4). Benchmark and potential are directional derivations from the demo market object. FX: none applied.
Market figures · Poland
Every market number carries its sources, retrieval dates, extraction method and confidence.Market figures are researched through structured web searches (the exact queries are listed below) plus machine extraction under a hard rule: every number must cite one of the supplied source URLs, or it is nulled — the anti-hallucination gate. A human review status is recorded on every market object, and everything market-level is directional by definition.
| Metric | Value | Confidence | Method | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market size | €2.3B (2026) | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| CAGR | 9.1% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Online share | 44% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Amazon share of online | 28% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Category growth benchmark | 38% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
Search queries used
The exact queries this market research run issued — the audit trail of the market object.
- beauty market size Germany 2026 (demo)
Channel presence · Poland
One entry per channel claim: state, statement, confidence, the machine-readable derivation trace, and every evidence source with its retrieval date.48 listings found on amazon.pl matching the brand.
Search results reference douglas.de for the brand; no product page was captured.
5 TikTok Shop listings/storefront pages found matching the brand.
Checked the ads transparency surface — no active ads found (not proof of absence).
6 active creatives found in the Meta Ad Library.
Own shop found with 140 products captured.
Social module did not run for this market — presence not checkable.
Revenue run-rate derivation · Poland
How today, benchmark and potential are computed for this market.Latest ground-truth daily sales × 365 — a labelled estimate, not measured sales. (Confidence 0.4)
Today ÷ covered-mix share — the share of the typical online channel mix the brand provably covers; weights derive from online share × Amazon share of online.
Benchmark × (1 + CAGR) — the same coverage at benchmark performance, grown at the market's CAGR.
Demo figures. Today is the documented spider estimate (avg price × capped product count × trend index, confidence 0.4). Benchmark and potential are directional derivations from the demo market object. FX: none applied.
Market figures · Switzerland
Every market number carries its sources, retrieval dates, extraction method and confidence.Market figures are researched through structured web searches (the exact queries are listed below) plus machine extraction under a hard rule: every number must cite one of the supplied source URLs, or it is nulled — the anti-hallucination gate. A human review status is recorded on every market object, and everything market-level is directional by definition.
| Metric | Value | Confidence | Method | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market size | €1.7B (2026) | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| CAGR | 5.9% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Online share | 44% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Amazon share of online | 18% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
| Category growth benchmark | 26% | 0.6 | demo_fixture | example.com (retrieved 2026-07-30) |
Search queries used
The exact queries this market research run issued — the audit trail of the market object.
- beauty market size Germany 2026 (demo)
Channel presence · Switzerland
One entry per channel claim: state, statement, confidence, the machine-readable derivation trace, and every evidence source with its retrieval date.48 listings found on amazon.de matching the brand.
Search results reference douglas.de for the brand; no product page was captured.
TikTok Shop does not operate in this market yet — channel not applicable.
Checked the ads transparency surface — no active ads found (not proof of absence).
6 active creatives found in the Meta Ad Library.
Own shop found with 140 products captured.
Social module did not run for this market — presence not checkable.
Revenue run-rate derivation · Switzerland
How today, benchmark and potential are computed for this market.Latest ground-truth daily sales × 365 — a labelled estimate, not measured sales. (Confidence 0.4)
Today ÷ covered-mix share — the share of the typical online channel mix the brand provably covers; weights derive from online share × Amazon share of online.
Benchmark × (1 + CAGR) — the same coverage at benchmark performance, grown at the market's CAGR.
Demo figures. Today is the documented spider estimate (avg price × capped product count × trend index, confidence 0.4). Benchmark and potential are directional derivations from the demo market object. FX: none applied.
How the indexes are computed
0.6 × presence coverage + 0.4 × CAGR growth. Presence coverage scores the channel claims (proven 1.0, likely 0.5, otherwise 0); the growth term saturates at a 15% CAGR and sits neutral when CAGR is unknown. It needs a released market object — without one the index is null, never guessed.
Presence index = min(98, round(base + bonus)). Base = log10(items found + 1) ÷ log10(saturation + 1) × 70, capped at 70 — the saturation is the item count at which a channel reads as fully present: marketplaces 50, D2C 100, ads 20, social 50. Bonus = average rating ÷ 5 × 25 when listings carry ratings. Capped at 98 because a crawl never proves everything. Explainable arithmetic, not an ML score.
The tick on each channel bar is the segment median of the same presence index over the brands we track in the same category and country — or, while no segment median has been derived, an editorial placeholder per channel. The method trace of every claim records which one applies, and the reading aid at the top of the analysis rolls it up.
Gap = brand index − benchmark tick, in index points — not percent, not revenue. Indexes are comparable within one channel only: each channel counts different items at its own saturation, so a 60 on Amazon and a 60 on social are not the same presence. Never compare across channels.